A Bayesian approach to modeling and projecting cohort effects

One of the key motivations in the construction of ever more sophisticated mortality models was the realisation of the importance of \cohort effects" in the historical data. However, these are often difficult to estimate robustly, due to the identifiability issues present in age/period/cohort mortality models, and exhibit spurious features for the most recent years of birth, for which we have little data. These can cause problems when we project the model into the future. In this study, we show how to ensure that projected mortality rates from the model are independent of the arbitrary identi ability constraints needed to identify the cohort parameters. We then go on to develop a Bayesian approach for projecting the cohort parameters, which allows fully for uncertainty in the recent parameters due to the lack of information for these years of birth, which leads to more reasonable projections of mortality rates in future

No evidence of association between prothrombotic gene polymorphisms and the development of acute myocardial infarction at a young age

Background : we investigated the association between 9 polymorphisms of genes encoding hemostasis factors and myocardial infarction in a large sample of young patients chosen because they have less coronary atherosclerosis than older patients, and thus their disease is more likely to be related to a genetic predisposition to a prothrombotic state Methods and Results : this nationwide case-control study involved 1210 patients who had survived a first myocardial infarction at an age of 45 years who underwent coronary arteriography in 125 coronary care units and 1210 healthy subjects matched for age, sex, and geographical origin. None of the 9 polymorphisms of genes encoding proteins involved in coagulation (G-455A -fibrinogen: OR, 1.0; CI, 0.8 to 1.2; G1691A factor V: OR, 1.1; CI, 0.6 to 2.1; G20210A factor II: OR, 1.0; CI, 0.5 to 1.9; and G10976A factor VII: OR, 1.0; CI, 0.8 to 1.3), platelet function (C807T glycoprotein Ia: OR, 1.1; CI, 0.9 to 1.3; and C1565T glycoprotein IIIa: OR, 0.9; CI, 0.8 to 1.2), fibrinolysis (G185T factor XIII: OR, 1.2; CI, 0.9 to 1.6; and 4G/5G plasminogen activator inhibitor type 1: OR, 0.9; CI, 0.7 to 1.2), or homocysteine metabolism (C677T methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase: OR, 0.9; CI, 0.8 to 1.1) were associated with an increased or decreased risk of myocardial infarction Conclusions : this study provides no evidence supporting an association between 9 polymorphisms of genes encoding proteins involved in hemostasis and the occurrence of premature myocardial infarction or protection against it

Conversion thermoélectrique par transitions de phase avec des matériaux ferroélectriques

Thermoelectric converters using ferroelectric ceramics are described in this paper. The large loss of the remanent polarization during a phase transition with rising or decreasing temperature is used in these converters. The principle of operation is reported ; experimental results, experimental and theoretical efficiencies are given for a ferroelectric-antiferroelectric phase transition during a drop in temperature. A comparative study with the results obtained during a ferroelectric-antiferroelectric or ferroelectric-paraelectric phase transition with rising temperature is achieved.La forte variation de la polarisation rémanente d'une céramique ferroélectrique lors d'un changement de phase consécutif à un échauffement ou à un refroidissement de l'échantillon, est à l'origine des convertisseurs thermoélectriques décrits dans cet article. Le principe de fonctionnement, les résultats expérimentaux obtenus et les rendements — expérimentaux et théoriques — sont étudiés à une transition ferroélectrique-antiferroélectrique, lors d'essais en descente de température ; la comparaison est faite avec les résultats obtenus au cours d'une transition ferroélectrique-antiferroélectrique ou ferroélectrique-paraélectrique en montée de température

Anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I antibodies and the risk of myocardial infarction in young premenopausal women.

BACKGROUND: Contrasting data have been reported on the association between the presence of anti-phospholipid antibodies (aPL) and arterial thrombotic events, particularly those in coronary arteries. This discrepancy is perhaps related to the confounding effect of traditional risk factors. Among them, coronary atherosclerosis appears to be the most important in studies conducted in middle-aged and elderly patients. OBJECTIVE: To minimize such confounding effects, a multicenter case-control study on the association between aPL and myocardial infarction (MI) was carried out in a rare cohort of young premenopausal women. METHODS: We evaluated 172 cases hospitalized for a first MI before the age of 45 years and 172 controls individually matched with cases for age, sex and geographical origin. Clinical and laboratory data were collected and levels of anti-cardiolipin (aCL), anti-beta2 glycoprotein I (anti-beta2GPI) and anti-nuclear antibodies (ANA) were measured. RESULTS: A significant association between MI and IgG/IgM anti-beta2GPI antibodies was observed; the results were confirmed after adjusting for smoking and hypertension (anti-beta2GPI IgG OR = 2.47, 95% CI 1.81-3.38; anti-beta2GPI IgM 4th quartile OR 3.68, 95% CI 1.69-8.02). The association between anti-beta2GPI antibodies and MI was detected in both subgroups with and without coronary artery stenosis. Whereas the association of aCL IgG with MI was modest, ANA showed no significant association with MI. No aPL were found in unselected patients (mainly males) who recently developed acute MI. CONCLUSIONS: Anti-beta2GPI antibodies are a significant risk factor for MI in young premenopausal women independently of other risk factors, including the degree of coronary artery stenosi

Comparison of dobutamine stress echocardiography, dipyridamole stress echocardiography and exercise stress testing for diagnosis of coronary artery disease.

To compare the value of dobutamine and dipyridamole stress echocardiography with exercise stress testing for the diagnosis of coronary artery disease (CAD), 80 patients with chest pain of suspected myocardial ischemic origin (57 with CAD and 23 without significant CAD) underwent dobutamine stress echocardiography (5 to 40 micrograms/kg/min), dipyridamole echocardiography (0.84 mg/kg over 10 minutes) and bicycle exercise electrocardiography after discontinuation of antianginal treatment. Dobutamine echocardiography and exercise testing revealed a higher overall sensitivity than dipyridamole echocardiography (79 vs 60%, p < 0.005; 77 vs 60%, p < 0.05, respectively); this finding was due to a higher dobutamine and exercise sensitivity in 1-vessel CAD (62 vs 33%, p < 0.05 for both tests), whereas sensitivity of the 3 tests was similar in multivessel CAD. Dobutamine and dipyridamole showed a higher specificity than exercise (83 vs 43%, p < 0.01; 96 vs 43%, p < 0.005, respectively). Diagnostic accuracy of dobutamine echocardiography was higher than that of exercise (80 vs 67%, p < 0.05), whereas the difference with dipyridamole (80 vs 70%) was not significant. In the tests that yielded positive results, double product during exercise was significantly higher than that during dobutamine and dipyridamole echocardiography. No major complications occurred during the tests, but adverse effects were more frequent during dobutamine testing. Thus, dobutamine echocardiography may be superior to dipyridamole echocardiography and exercise electrocardiography for the diagnosis of CAD

Thrombogenic potential of human coronary atherosclerotic plaques

Higher levels of tissue factor (the initiator of blood coagulation) have been found in coronary atherosclerotic plaques of patients with unstable coronary artery disease, but it is not established whether they are associated with a different thrombotic response to in vivo plaque rupture. In 40 patients undergoing directional coronary atherectomy, prothrombin fragment 1 + 2, a marker of thrombin generation, was measured in intracoronary blood samples obtained proximally and distally to the coronary atherosclerotic plaque before and after the procedure. Before the procedure, plasma prothrombin fragment 1 + 2 levels were significantly Increased across the lesion In patients with unstable, but not in those with stable, coronary disease (unstable, median Increase, 0.37 nM; range, -0.35-1.16 nM) (stable, median increase, -0.065 nM; range, -0.58-1.06 nM) (P = .0021). After plaque removal, an increase in prothrombin fragment 1 + 2 across the lesion was observed only in patients with unstable coronary disease (unstable, median Increase, 0.25 nM; range, -1.04-4.9 nM) (stable, 0.01 nM; range, -0.48-3.59 nM) (P = .036)]. There was a correlation between the tissue factor content of the plaque and the increase in thrombin generation across the lesion (p = 0.33; P = .038). The higher tissue factor content found In plaques obtained from patients with unstable coronary disease was associated with a local increase In thrombin generation, thus suggesting a link with the in vivo thrombogenicity of the plaque. (C) 2001 by The American Society of Hematology

Activation of the contact system and inflammation after thrombolytic therapy in patients with acute myocardial infarction

Thrombolytic therapy activates the contact system, and factor XII activation may activate the coagulation cascade and inflammation. It is not known whether an early inflammatory response is induced by thrombolytic therapy in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). We prospectively measured the plasma levels of activated factor XII, cleaved kininogen, prothrombin fragment 1 + 2 (as indexes of the contact phase and coagulation activation), and interleukin-6 and C-reactive protein (CRP) (as indexes of inflammation) in 39 patients hospitalized for AMI within 12 hours of symptom onset: 26 receiving thrombolytic therapy and 13 heparin alone. Blood samples were collected at baseline and after 90 minutes and 24 hours. Patients undergoing thrombolysis had a significant early increase in activated factor XII (from 2.2 ng/ml at baseline to 4.7 ng/ml after 90 minutes; p = 0.0001), cleaved kininogen (from 26% to 37%; p = 0.001), and fragment 1 + 2 (from 1.4 to 2.1 nmol/L; p = 0.0001), whereas the 24-hour levels were similar to baseline levels. The levels of interleukin-6 significantly increased during the first 90 minutes (from 3.9 to 6.3 mug/ml; p = 0.001), and were even higher after 24 hours (11.9 ng/ml, p = 0.0001). CRP levels increased only after 24 hours (p = 0.0001). There were no changes in these parameters in patients receiving heparin alone, except for a 24-hour increase in interleukin-6 and CRP levels. Thus, in patients with AMI receiving thrombolytic therapy, early activation of inflammation parallels the activation of the contact system and the coagulation cascade, which might contribute to microvascular obstruction and reperfusion injury